When first exploring whisky investment, one of the most common questions is: “how much will my cask be worth in a number of years?”
At Cask Trade we do not categorise ourselves as investment advisors. Like any alternative asset, the market can fluctuate and historic data can’t predict future results.
We are aware that many people enter the world of cask ownership with alternate investment goals in mind. For those who are focused on investment potential, it can be tempting to search for a form of whisky calculator to help forecast appreciation results.
Do Whisky Calculators actually exist?
The short answer is no – not to aid ROI predictions.
What you might come across are Whisky Cask Calculator tools, designed to estimate the number of bottles that can be produced from a cask which holds a certain volume of liquid at a specific alcohol volume. This tool is designed to help those who are looking to bottle their cask rather than sell to realise profit.
However, with the rise of AI and the growing popularity of whisky cask investment, there is potential that some companies may claim to be able to calculate returns to illustrate growth. If a company promotes a whisky barrel investment calculator which forecasts returns from your investment, it’s advisable to approach with caution. There are several reasons for this.
Lack Of Personal Touch
Investing in whisky is unique to everyone. Some people enter the process with alternate investment goals in mind, while others may want to own a specific cask to bottle. With such unique motivations and goals for everyone, cask ownership is a personal journey.
Use of a calculator lacks the personal insight and knowledge that a whisky expert can provide. These tools are unaware of market conditions and trends, making them ill-equipped to guide investment decisions. Calculators are also unable to connect to the buyer on a human level. Sometimes what looks like the most profitable cask does not suit the buyer due to personal taste and preferences.
Difficult To Predict Future Trends
No two casks are the same, even if they are from the same distillery. Variables such as; storage, age, liquid volume, alcohol by volume (ABV), the type and age of the wood used in the barrel all play a role in the unique character of each cask. A standardised calculator would not be able to account for these variations per cask, therefore would not be able to accurately predict investment outcome.
Predicting future market trends is another area where calculators fall short. They cannot account for shifts in the general whisky market or the fluctuating popularity of specific distilleries.
At Cask Trade, we have sold thousands of casks across the globe. While we will never be able to tell you the exact outcome of your cask purchase, we can use our own historic data and experience to give you well considered examples of cask performance over the last few years, taking into consideration all the varying factors that have been mentioned above.
Ignores Whisky Heritage
A whisky investment calculator ignores the rich heritage and history connected to the liquid itself, as well as the deep passion that whisky enthusiasts bring to the industry.
While many private clients don’t consider whisky investment as a personal journey, we have worked with many individuals who have turned what they thought was an alternative investment option into a true passion and lifetime hobby. You can only achieve this kind of fulfillment when dealing with the people who know the industry and whisky heritage the best.
User Error
Like any manual input-output process, a whisky calculator can still be prone to human error. An expert can identify mistakes and potential issues when someone inquires about specific casks or investment opportunities. Spotting these errors often requires years of experience, something a calculator simply cannot replicate. Moreover, if the build or setup of the calculator itself is impacted by inaccuracies or digital bugs, the output will not be accurate.
Algorithm Assumptions
Calculators rely on algorithms that may not be suitable for assessing a particular barrel or cask. These algorithms cannot anticipate or manage risks effectively. For example, generalising average return from a particular region or distillery does not take into account the nuances of individual casks or market changes.
At Cask Trade our service does not stop at the point of sale. Year after year, we support our clients, share key industry insights, and recommend changes in strategy if we see fluctuations in the market or a change in demand for certain cask types. This is an agile process which requires a clear stream of communication with our clients – something that cannot be achieved by a calculator.
Why Whisky Calculators Shouldn’t be Trusted
These five points underscore the importance of consulting an expert for future predictions rather than relying on a calculator. Every cask is unique and deserves individual consideration. An expert brings a personal touch, knowledge of trends, and an understanding of the ever-changing whisky market that no machine can match. Experts are adept at managing and mitigating risks and can identify technical details about casks that calculators overlook. Lastly, no machine can capture the passion, heritage, and history that make the whisky industry and its enthusiasts so special, bringing each barrel or cask to life as more than just an asset.
Learn more about our expert team and how they can help you navigate the world of cask whisky. Read our Beginners Guide to Whisky Investment which outlines key considerations before you purchase your first cask.
Alternately, register to speak to one of our whisky experts today. You will be assigned your own dedicated account manager who can talk you through the process and how we work. When your goals and budget have been decided, we can then recommend tailored whisky casks or portfolios to help you meet your aspirations.
Based in Hong Kong?
With experts across the globe, we can help you no matter where in the world you are. Register on casktrade.hk to speak to our Hong Kong based team.